Ledger

Open

9

Resolved

1

Falsified

0

Void

1

1. Issue 1125 August 2026open

   Before 31 December 2026 the ClinicalTrials.gov record for NCT07775300 (Lilly, brenipatide, Phase 3 MDD) will show overall status RECRUITING AND still carry at least one of Germany, Greece, Poland, Spain or the United Kingdom in its location list. Our read of whether the EU-member site list is real intent or paperwork.

   Resolves

   31 December 2026

   Criteria

   Falsifier, two conditions, both must hold for a HIT: on 31 December 2026 the record's `overallStatus` is anything other than RECRUITING → miss; OR all five of DE/GR/PL/ES/UK have been dropped from `LocationCountry` → miss.

2. Issue 1018 August 2026open

   No pharmaceutical company will be named as the responsible party on a BfArM compassionate use entry for psilocybin or MDMA before 31 December 2027. Our read, not anyone's stated plan.

   Resolves

   2027-12-31 (or earlier if an entry appears)

   Criteria

   Falsifier: any company named in the *Verantwortliche Person* column for psilocybin or MDMA before 2027-12-31 → miss.

3. Issue 94 August 2026open

   Compass Pathways will NOT publicly disclose a marketing authorisation application to the MHRA or the EMA for COMP360 before 30 June 2027 — the end of its own guided US launch window. Our read, not Compass's stated plan; the company has said nothing about future European intent in either direction.

   Resolves

   2027-06-30 (or earlier if disclosed)

   Criteria

   Falsifier: Compass discloses a UK or EU application, or a regulator's register shows one, before 2027-06-30 → miss.

4. Issue 828 July 2026open

   No psilocybin or MDMA therapy will enter a formal health technology assessment or benefit assessment process in Germany, the Netherlands or the United Kingdom before 31 December 2027. Our read, not anyone's stated plan.

   Resolves

   31 December 2027

   Criteria

   Falsifier: a manufacturer submits a psilocybin or MDMA therapy to the G-BA, Zorginstituut Nederland, or NICE before 2027-12-31 → miss.

5. Issue 721 July 2026open

   Within 12 months of the Lilly/AtaiBeckley deal closing, neither BPL-003 nor VLS-01 will have a registered Phase 3 trial carrying ANY EU-member-state site, AND Lilly will have disclosed no EMA pathway for either drug. Our read of the deal's incentives, not Lilly's stated plan.

   Resolves

   12 months after acquisition close (close date not yet public; backstop 2027-07-21)

   Criteria

   Falsifier: a registered Phase 3 for either drug with any EU-member-state site, OR a disclosed EMA pathway for either, within the window → miss.

6. Issue 614 July 2026open

   COMP360 (Compass psilocybin) will NOT be commercially available to prescribe in the US by 30 June 2027 — i.e. the guided "first half of 2027" launch slips.

   Resolves

   2027-06-30 (or earlier if launched)

   Criteria

   Falsifier: if COMP360 is FDA-approved AND commercially available to prescribe in the US on/before 30 June 2027 → miss.

7. Issue 57 July 2026open

   AtaiBeckley's BPL-003 Phase 3 program, when it registers, will use an ADJUNCTIVE design (patients stay on a stable SSRI, no antidepressant washout mandated). BPL-003 commits to the adjunctive camp, not the washout camp (Compass/EPIsoDE).

   Resolves

   BPL-003 Phase 3 registry posting, expected H2 2026

   Criteria

   Falsifier: if the Phase 3 eligibility on ClinicalTrials.gov requires discontinuing a stable SSRI before dosing → miss.

8. Issue 430 June 2026open

   Definium's Panorama (Phase 3 GAD, DT120 100µg, with 50µg low-dose unblinding-control arm + EU sites) will show a SMALLER placebo-adjusted effect than its sister trial Voyage (same indication/scale, no low-dose arm). Tests whether the Emerge headline is drug or expectancy.

   Resolves

   Both readouts public; guided 2026, target year-end (stays open if Panorama slips to 2027)

   Criteria

   HIT if Panorama's 100µg-vs-placebo separation is LESS than 5.4 points. MISS if it is 5.

9. Issue 323 June 2026open

   AtaiBeckley will report first BPL-003 Phase 3 patient dosed in Q3 2026 (after 30 June, before 30 September).

   Resolves

   30 September 2026

   Criteria

   Not stated

10. Issue 216 June 2026HIT

    AtaiBeckley will NOT announce first BPL-003 Phase 3 patient dosed before 30 June 2026. Expects initiation language near the wire; confirmed dosing slips to Q3.

    Resolves

    30 June 2026

    Criteria

    Not stated

11. Issue 19 June 2026void

    No call made — "The Call" section not yet established in this issue.

    Resolves

    Not stated

    Criteria

    Not stated