Ledger

Issue 1 · 9 June 2026

No call made — "The Call" section not yet established in this issue.

Resolves

Not stated

Status

void

Falsifier

Not stated

Issue 1

Issue 2 · 16 June 2026

AtaiBeckley will NOT announce first BPL-003 Phase 3 patient dosed before 30 June 2026. Expects initiation language near the wire; confirmed dosing slips to Q3.

Resolves

30 June 2026

Status

HIT

Falsifier

If a dosed-patient release lands this month, I mark myself wrong in Issue 3.

Issue 2

Issue 3 · 23 June 2026

AtaiBeckley will report first BPL-003 Phase 3 patient dosed in Q3 2026 (after 30 June, before 30 September).

Resolves

30 September 2026

Status

MISS

Falsifier

Not stated in print.

Scored 30 Sept 2026: Q3 closed with no report of a first BPL-003 Phase 3 patient dosed on any channel that answered, and the near-miss hunt disarmed three lookalikes. Final on 1 October 2026 after a second sweep found nothing. MISS.

Issue 3

Issue 4 · 30 June 2026

Definium's Panorama (Phase 3 GAD, DT120 100µg, with 50µg low-dose unblinding-control arm + EU sites) will show a SMALLER placebo-adjusted effect than its sister trial Voyage (same indication/scale, no low-dose arm). Tests whether the Emerge headline is drug or expectancy.

Resolves

Both readouts public; guided 2026, target year-end (stays open if Panorama slips to 2027)

Status

HIT

Falsifier

HIT if Panorama's 100µg-vs-placebo separation is LESS than 5.4 points. MISS if it is 5.4 points or greater.

Scored 15 Sept 2026: Panorama 5.1, Voyage 5.4. HIT.

Issue 4

Issue 5 · 7 July 2026

AtaiBeckley's BPL-003 Phase 3 program, when it registers, will use an ADJUNCTIVE design (patients stay on a stable SSRI, no antidepressant washout mandated). BPL-003 commits to the adjunctive camp, not the washout camp (Compass/EPIsoDE).

Resolves

BPL-003 Phase 3 registry posting, expected H2 2026

Status

open

Falsifier

if the Phase 3 eligibility on ClinicalTrials.gov requires discontinuing a stable SSRI before dosing → miss.

Issue 5

Issue 6 · 14 July 2026

COMP360 (Compass psilocybin) will NOT be commercially available to prescribe in the US by 30 June 2027 — i.e. the guided "first half of 2027" launch slips.

Resolves

2027-06-30 (or earlier if launched)

Status

open

Falsifier

if COMP360 is FDA-approved AND commercially available to prescribe in the US on/before 30 June 2027 → miss.

Issue 6

Issue 7 · 21 July 2026

Within 12 months of the Lilly/AtaiBeckley deal closing, neither BPL-003 nor VLS-01 will have a registered Phase 3 trial carrying ANY EU-member-state site, AND Lilly will have disclosed no EMA pathway for either drug. Our read of the deal's incentives, not Lilly's stated plan.

Resolves

11 September 2027

Status

open

Falsifier

a registered Phase 3 for either drug with any EU-member-state site, OR a disclosed EMA pathway for either, within the window → miss.

Issue 7

Issue 8 · 28 July 2026

No psilocybin or MDMA therapy will enter a formal health technology assessment or benefit assessment process in Germany, the Netherlands or the United Kingdom before 31 December 2027. Our read, not anyone's stated plan.

Resolves

31 December 2027

Status

open

Falsifier

a manufacturer submits a psilocybin or MDMA therapy to the G-BA, Zorginstituut Nederland, or NICE before 2027-12-31 → miss.

Issue 8

Issue 9 · 4 August 2026

Compass Pathways will NOT publicly disclose a marketing authorisation application to the MHRA or the EMA for COMP360 before 30 June 2027 — the end of its own guided US launch window. Our read, not Compass's stated plan; the company has said nothing about future European intent in either direction.

Resolves

2027-06-30 (or earlier if disclosed)

Status

open

Falsifier

Compass discloses a UK or EU application, or a regulator's register shows one, before 2027-06-30 → miss.

Issue 9

Issue 10 · 18 August 2026

No pharmaceutical company will be named as the responsible party on a BfArM compassionate use entry for psilocybin or MDMA before 31 December 2027. Our read, not anyone's stated plan.

Resolves

2027-12-31 (or earlier if an entry appears)

Status

open

Falsifier

any company named in the *Verantwortliche Person* column for psilocybin or MDMA before 2027-12-31 → miss.

Issue 10

Issue 11 · 25 August 2026

Before 31 December 2026 the ClinicalTrials.gov record for NCT07775300 (Lilly, brenipatide, Phase 3 MDD) will show overall status RECRUITING AND still carry at least one of Germany, Greece, Poland, Spain or the United Kingdom in its location list. Our read of whether the EU-member site list is real intent or paperwork.

Resolves

31 December 2026

Status

open

Falsifier

Falsifier, two conditions, both must hold for a HIT: on 31 December 2026 the record's `overallStatus` is anything other than RECRUITING → miss; OR all five of DE/GR/PL/ES/UK have been dropped from `LocationCountry` → miss.

Issue 11

Issue 12 · 1 September 2026

Before 31 December 2026, at least one additional EU member state will appear across Lilly's five brenipatide CTIS trials, beyond the current five (Belgium, Germany, Greece, Poland, Spain). Our read that a trial engine that added four national approvals in seven days keeps expanding.

Resolves

31 December 2026

Status

open

Falsifier

on 31 December 2026 the union of `memberStatesConcerned` across those five trial records is five or fewer. Scored on the union across the five records, not per trial, because a state moving between trials is not expansion.

Issue 12

Issue 13 · 8 September 2026

None of Slagelse DANP-RCT, Chieti psilocybin plus trazodone, or Amsterdam UMC adolescent PTSD has a ClinicalTrials.gov record by 31 December 2026. Falsifier: any one appears. Scored in the first January issue.

Resolves

31 December 2026

Status

open

Falsifier

any one appears.

Issue 13

Issue 14 · 15 September 2026

Lilly does not name BPL-003, VLS-01 or mebufotenin in its Q3 2026 earnings press release, earnings deck, prepared remarks or Q&A, as published on the day of the release. Our read of whether the acquired compounds are a pipeline priority to Lilly's shareholders.

Resolves

Day of Lilly's Q3 2026 earnings release (late October 2026; date not yet announced by Lilly)

Status

open

Falsifier

any of the three names in any of the four documents, pipeline chart included. "AtaiBeckley" alone does not count.

Issue 14

Issue 15 · 22 September 2026

No Lilly-sponsored Phase 3 trial of VLS-01 in major depressive disorder is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov or CTIS by 30 June 2027. Our read of CVR Section 4.3(a)(i), the VLS Indication Exclusion, which leaves Lilly no efforts obligation for MDD or GAD.

Resolves

30 June 2027

Status

open

Falsifier

a Lilly-sponsored VLS-01 Phase 3 in MDD registered on ClinicalTrials.gov or CTIS by 30 June 2027.

Issue 15

Issue 16 · 29 September 2026

Compass discloses completion of its rolling NDA submission for COMP360, the FDA marketing application, on or before 31 December 2026.

Resolves

31 December 2026

Status

open

Falsifier

no Compass press release or SEC filing dated on or before 31 December 2026 states that the NDA submission is complete.

Issue 16

Issue 17 · 6 October 2026

On 31 March 2027 the primary completion date on NCT06793397 is still 7 June 2027.

Resolves

31 March 2027

Status

open

Falsifier

any primary completion date later than 7 June 2027 on the record on 31 March 2027.

Issue 17